Apophis 2029 Flyby: What Will Happen on April 13 and Why It Matters

The Apophis 2029 flyby is the closest approach of an asteroid this large that humanity has ever been able to plan for. On April 13, 2029, a rock a few hundred meters across will pass Earth at roughly 32,000 to 36,000 kilometers (about 20,000 miles) from the surface, depending on the source and how the distance is measured. That is closer than the ring of geostationary satellites. It will not hit us. But it will be a rare, free laboratory for anyone who wants to understand asteroids up close, and that includes people who one day want to mine them.

Will Apophis hit Earth?

No. When Apophis was discovered in 2004, early orbit estimates gave it a small chance of impact in 2029. Years of additional radar and optical observations ruled that out. NASA states that there is no danger of impact from this flyby, and the same orbit work has also cleared the following decades with the data we have today.

The reason the flyby is still interesting is gravity. Earth's pull will bend and reshape Apophis's orbit, and may subtly change how it spins. Scientists want to watch exactly how a loosely held rubble body responds to that tug.

Apophis asteroid facts

Estimates of the asteroid's size vary by source, which is normal for a body measured mostly from far away. NASA's animation materials describe a longest axis of around 450 meters and a shortest of about 170 meters, while other outlets quote an average near 340 meters.

Can you see Apophis with the naked eye?

Possibly, if you are in the right place. NASA says observers in the Eastern Hemisphere, weather permitting, should be able to see it without a telescope or binoculars for a few hours around the flyby. Mission scientists have also been clear that it will not be a spectacular show. Expect a faint, fast-moving point of light crossing the constellations, not a fireball.

Which spacecraft will study Apophis?

Two missions are planned to watch the encounter:

1. OSIRIS-APEX (NASA). This is the former OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which already returned a sample from asteroid Bennu. It was renamed and extended to visit Apophis, and it is expected to arrive around the time of the flyby. Its funding has been a question in recent US budget debates, so its status is worth checking against NASA's latest announcements.
2. Ramses (ESA). The Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety is designed to rendezvous with the asteroid and accompany it through the close pass.

Sources differ on exactly how long OSIRIS-APEX will stay near the asteroid, with figures from about six to eighteen months reported, so treat any single number with care.

What Apophis means for asteroid mining

Apophis is not a mining target. It is a stony body, and nobody is planning to extract anything from it. Its value for the industry is information.

• How rubble piles behave. Many asteroids are loose piles of rock, not solid monoliths. Seeing how one deforms under Earth's gravity tells us how structurally tough such bodies are.
• Surface change. If the flyby shifts boulders or creates landslides, that is direct evidence for how easily regolith moves, which matters for any anchoring or digging system.
• Operations near a small body. Every mission that proximity-operates near an asteroid adds to the shared playbook for navigation, communications, and safe approach.
• Planetary defense. Knowing how to deflect or characterize an asteroid is the same skill set as knowing how to reach one cheaply.

Why the 2029 flyby matters to Frontier

Frontier is a community-funded project that starts with asteroid resources, then looks toward Mars and Titan. We build in public, the token supply is fixed, and the treasury is held in a multisig so the community can see what is spent. We are not claiming we will visit Apophis. We are saying that missions like OSIRIS-APEX and Ramses are exactly the kind of public science that makes private asteroid work possible, and that we intend to learn openly from the results.

Frequently asked questions

How close will Apophis get to Earth in 2029? About 32,000 to 36,000 kilometers from Earth's surface, which is roughly 20,000 miles. That is inside the orbit of many geostationary satellites.

Is Apophis dangerous? NASA says the 2029 flyby poses no impact danger. Scientists continue to refine its orbit, but current data do not show an impact in the coming decades.

When can I see Apophis? On April 13, 2029, observers in the Eastern Hemisphere may see it with the naked eye for a few hours, weather permitting. Binoculars or a small telescope will help.

Could Apophis be mined? Not in any realistic near-term plan. It is a science and planetary defense target, but what we learn about its structure will help future mining missions choose and approach other asteroids.